Because of all the stats I've been collecting on "Who Tops More" my immediate thought was that mpreg!Draco is more common because bottom!Draco is more common.
But when I suggested this to capitu, she disagreed, and gave me other reasons why Mpreg!Draco would be more common:
I'd say that even in those fics that are mpreg!Draco there's half bottom!draco and half switching. I think it comes down to the very popular trope that Draco being a pure-blood has far more chance to get pregnant, and that weird things happen with Harry, that he's powerful, whathaveyou, and that's why it happens. Of course, that's not the only reason, but it's a very common belief, you know?
I wonder, though, how separate these reasons really are. I can see that powerful!Harry = weird things happening = mpreg!Draco, but I can also be persuaded that powerful!Harry --> bottom!Draco for many people too. So these might go hand in hand. The pure-blood!Draco thing is a bit more separate, though, I admit. But still: mpreg!Draco is compatible with both bottom!Draco and switching, but doesn't work quite so well with bottom!Harry (though I'm sure some writer has pulled it off!)
So, since I'm such a fan of stats, I figured I whip some up for mpreg! I'm including in this dataset all the fics from all the past harrydracompreg fests, as well as the 2007 hd_inspired Mpreg challenge. I know that there are lots more mpreg fics out there, but there's no fast and unbiased way for me to sample those right now. So as always, we turn to the fests!
- The mods at harrydracompreg are great, because every fic is tagged with which of the boys is pregnant in that fic, making it SO EASY to collect the data.
- For hd_inspired I had to go through and skim all 33 fics myself, but it's pretty easy to ctrl-F for "pregnant" and see who is referenced :)
- For simplicity's sake, I am not making a distinction between one of them being pregnant in the past (before the fic starts) and being pregnant in the fic. If (say) Draco is known to have been pregnant at any time, then it's an mpreg!Draco fic regardless of when the pregnancy occurs.
- 2011 is notable for including 5 Spanish-language fics in the fest. Not all of these fics were tagged for who was pregnant, however, and I don't read Spanish :( Many thanks to capitu for helping me determine who was pregnant in these fics!
*In 2011, 36 fics were actually posted to the fest, but one of them had a pregnant Albus or Scorpius, and another one had past mpreg without clarifying who had carried. So these two fics from 2011 have not been counted in the data.
**In the original post of this data I had miscounted one of the 2012 fics as preg!Harry when it was actually preg!both. It is fixed now. Thanks to cagnurit for double-checking my numbers!
As you can see, mpreg!Draco is always more common, though in both 2012 and 2013 it wasn't by all that much. Anyone else want to speculate about the reasons for these trends?
Also I'm super curious as to why the 2011 fest included 5 Spanish language fics. I've never seen that in a fest before!